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2025 Through My Lens of Macro
While the consensus chased narratives, BMB followed the data. Here's a quarter-by-quarter breakdown of every major call - what the market believed, what we saw, and the macro triggers that drove each move.
6/6
Major Calls Correct
5x
3-Year average return
2
crashes avoided
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jan - march 2025
Quarter 1 2025
✕ Consensus View
"Q1 2025 will be a massive altseason like Q1 2021"
The majority of the market was convinced that the post-halving year would deliver a massive altcoin rally just like the beginning of 2021. Trump's election win, the 4-year cycle theory, and general euphoria had everyone positioned aggressively long in altcoins.
✓ BMB View
"Market growth is highly unlikely with macro headwinds building."
By the last week of January, macro headwinds were stacking against the market. On February 6th, BMB issued a major strategy update - selling all altcoin and stock positions to cash. The full reasoning was published live on the BMB YouTube channel for members, detailing every headwind in real time.
Screenshots from BMB Slack - Feb 6th, 2025
macro triggers
↓ Large decline in global liquidity
↓ Hawkish Dec FOMC Meeting
↓ Bank of Japan rate hike
↓ Tariffs announced
↓ DOGE: "reduce debt" *& "balance budget"
→ Macro conditions turned overwhelmingly bearish. Markets sold off aggressively.
April — June 2025
Quarter 2 2025
✕ Consensus View
"Tariffs will kick off the next major bear market"
After the market hit the lows, the crowd flipped bearish. Everyone believed tariffs would trigger the next 2008 - CNBC headlines screamed bear market, and most investors were panicking or sitting on the sidelines, afraid to re-enter.
✓ BMB View
"A major bear market is unlikely after the Trump Put + Fiscal Stimulus combo."
BMB identified that the Trump administration paused most tariffs on April 9th after the bond market nearly broke. Simultaneously, fiscal stimulus rhetoric shifted towards growth via the One Big Beautiful Bill. The strategy pivoted from defense to heavily re-allocating into risk assets, backed by rising global liquidity and Treasury analysis.
Screenshots from BMB Live Call
macro triggers
↑ Global liquidity rebounding since early Q1
↑ Trump paused most tariffs (Apr 9)
↑ Govt shifted towards growth (OBBB)
↑ DXY decline 10% from start of year
→ Macro conditions were turning bullish. Risk assets rallied hard through the summer.
July — September 2025
Quarter 3 2025
✕ Consensus View
"Q3 will be bearish because of Seasonals + Tariffs"
Investors who missed the spring bottom were still too bearish. They argued the tariff 90-day pause was about to expire, and that Q3 is historically the worst quarter for markets. The crowd expected a rollover and a retest of the spring lows.
✓ BMB View
"Not likely due to OBBB rhetoric and Global Liquidity rising."
BMB's strategy continued allocating more heavily into risk assets and staying long. In a late-June workshop, we called for a "Heatwave Rally" — reasoning: the dollar was selling off, global liquidity was moving higher, fiscal stimulus was incoming, and CT sentiment was not bullish. A potential perfect storm for upside. Bitcoin was up 30%, Ethereum 30%, Solana 17.5% through the quarter.
Screenshots from BMB Live Call
macro triggers
↑ Global liquidity trends rising
↑ DXY declining further
↑ OBBB signed into law (Fiscal Stimulus)
↑ GENIUS Act & CLARITY Act signed
→ Macro conditions continued to remain bullish. Markets rallied through the summer.
July 2025 — Deep Dive
Quarter 3 2025
Part 2: The Ethereum Call
✕ Consensus View
"Altcoin season is starting"
When Ethereum started to break out in July, the broader market saw it as a signal that all altcoins were about to rally. The crowd began rotating into the usual altcoin plays (ADA, LINK, XRP, and a variety of meme coins) expecting a repeat of prior alt seasons.
✓ BMB View
"Ethereum season is a more likely outcome."
BMB tracked ETH against the top 30 cryptos on their pairs and found Ethereum was matching or outpacing almost every major altcoin. The strategy pivoted to an Ethereum-heavy portfolio: 68% BTC, 24.75% ETH, plus small AERO and USDT positions. The GENIUS Act (50%+ stablecoins on ETH), record ETH ETF inflows, and institutional demand from firms like BitMine confirmed the thesis.
Screenshots from BMB Live Call
macro triggers
↑ Record Ethereum ETF inflows
↑ GENIUS Act -> 50% stablecoins on ETH
↑ Insitutional demand (Tom Lee, Bitmine)
↑ Bullish macro conditions
→ Ethereum season was the correct play, not a broad altcoin rally.
October — December 2025
Quarter 4 2025
Crypto
✕ Consensus View
"Q4 post-halving-year is always bullish for Crypto & high beta"
Everyone from Raoul Pal to Dan Tapiero and countless influencers said Q4 had to be bullish. The 4-year cycle narrative, Trump's presidency, institutional buying - every narrative pointed to a massive Q4 rally. Influencers were calling the October crash a "flash crash" and a buying opportunity. They were wrong.
✓ BMB View
"Not likely after the October 10th liquidation event."
On October 10th, a tariff bomb triggered a massive liquidation event. Within 48 hours of analysis, BMB issued sell alerts. By October 12th, we began reducing ETH from 28% to 14%. By October 14th, remaining ETH was sold at $3,965. The strategy moved almost entirely to cash within 72 hours - while the consensus screamed "buy the dip." ETH subsequently fell 50%+ from our exit price.
Screenshots from BMB Slack - Oct 12-17
macro triggers
↓ Global liquidity trends stalling
↓ DXY forming technical bottom -> uptrending
↓ U.S. financial system stress (SOFR, REPO)
↓ Hawkish Fed at October FOMC
→ Macro conditions turned bearish. Crypto entered a bear market. BMB was fully in cash.
October — December 2025
Quarter 4 2025
High beta & stocks
✕ Consensus View
"AI and tech will keep running, there's no bubble"
Dan Ives dismissed AI bubble talk and predicted years of growth ahead. Tom Lee called it "the most hated V-shaped rally." Everything labeled AI was being bought regardless of valuation (Oracle, Microsoft, AMD) in a retail buying frenzy. The MAG7 was still considered the only trade in town.
✓ BMB View
"Not likely with global liquidity stalling and U.S. financial system stress showing."
BMB identified the OpenAI contagion spreading through tech - Oracle broke down first, then Microsoft followed. We flagged stalling global liquidity, standing repo facility stress ($18.5B single-day draw), and bank reserves approaching critical thresholds. By early November, the strategy began selling off stock positions. By December, BMB was positioning for a rotational or potentially bearish 2026.
Screenshots from BMB Live Call
macro triggers
↓ Global liquidity trends stalling
↓ DXY forming technical bottom -> uptrending
↓ U.S. financial system stress (SOFR, REPO)
↓ Hawkish Fed at October FOMC
↓ OpenAI bubble popping
→ Macro conditions starting to become bearish. Tech and AI stocks continued lower into 2026.
January — February 2026
Quarter 1 2026
✕ Consensus View
"Trump wants to run it hot into the Midterms, so go long Growth and AI"
Entering 2026, the narrative was simple: Trump needs the market up for midterms, so stay long growth and AI. The crowd expected MAG7 and tech to bounce back. Capital was still chasing the same momentum trades that worked in 2024 and parts of 2025.
✓ BMB View
"Market unlikely to reward aggressive growth positioning in Q1 2026."
BMB remained cash-heavy and away from growth, momentum, and tech trades. The IVE/IVW (value vs. growth) spread had reached an unusually negative extreme - a signal that historically precedes a rotation into value. Leadership was rotating away from mega-cap growth toward value, small caps, and cyclicals. Microsoft and AMD continued making new lows. Energy, commodities, and defensive sectors were the pockets of strength.
Screenshots from BMB Live Call
macro triggers
↓ Global liquidity cycle peaking / rolling over
↓ DXY bottoming and uptrending
↓ OpenAI contagion spreading (ORCL -> MSFT)
↓ Value vs. Growth spread at extreme
↓ Continued local liquidity stress
→ Growth and tech underperformed. The great rotation into value, small caps, and cyclicals began.
Macro is an unfair advantage.
It allows you to see what's coming while others don't. And seeing what's coming while others don't is how you make (and keep) your money with investing.
If had ignored macro in 2025...
I would have made every one of these mistakes, each of which costs investors 5, 6, even 7 figures.
Held altcoins too long
Without macro, you'd have been holding alts through months of bleed with no exit strategy.
Wrong weighting on BTC & ETH
The data showed BTC and ETH dominance for most of the year, not a broad altcoin rally.
Refused to cut losers
Narratives keep you married to positions. Macro tells you when the conditions no longer support them.
Missed the spring bottom
Headlines said bear market. Macro said fiscal stimulus + weak dollar + rising liquidity. The data was right.
Stuck in heavy tech positions
OpenAI contagion, stalling liquidity, and value rotation crushed growth stocks in Q4 and into 2026.
Caught in two crashes
February and October both had clear macro warning signs. BMB members were in cash for both.
